Effect of stress-strain conditions on physical precursors and failure stages development in rock samples

Precursory stages of failure development in large rock samples were studied and simultaneous observations of the space-time variation of several physical fields were carried out under different stress-strain states. The failure process was studied in detail. A hierarchical structure of discreet rock medium was obtained after loading. It was found that the moisture reduced the rock strength, increased the microcrack distribution and influenced the shape of the failure physical precursors. The rise in temperature up to 400 °C affected the physical precursors at the intermediate and final stages of the failure. Significant variations were detected in the acoustic and electromagnetic emissions. The coalescence criterion was slightly depending on the rock moisture and temperature effect. The possibility of identifying the precursory stage of failure at different strain conditions by means of a complex parameter derived from the convolution of physical recorded data is shown. The obtained results point out the efficiency of the laboratory modelling of seismic processe

Probabilistic model to forecast earthquakes in the Zemmouri (Algeria) seismoactive area on the basis of moment magnitude scale distribution functions

Based on the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was developed to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes in the seismoactive area of Zemmouri, Algeria. Firstly, the distributions of earthquake magnitudes M i were described using the distribution function F 0(m), which adjusts the magnitudes considered as independent random variables. Secondly, the obtained result, i.e., the distribution function F 0(m) of the variables M i was used to deduce the distribution functions G(x) and H(y) of the variables Y i = Log M 0,i and Z i = M 0,i , where (Y i)i and (Z i)i are independent. Thirdly, some forecast for moments of the future earthquakes in the studied area is give